Friday, October 26, 2018

Nifty/BankNifty - Long term view

BankNifty weekly -

5EMA crossed 62EMA and closed at 24421. Last time this crossover happened back in September 2015 and BN fall appx 3200 points(20%- 17000-13800). For first 3 weeks it tried to recover, price closed above 62 EMA but EMA's crossover didn't happen(on upside). Then it start it downward journey to 13800 and downfall lasts for appx 15 weeks.

So if BN follows same pattern this time as well then it may bounce from here till second or third week of November'18 and then will start falling(if 5EMA cross didn't happen on upside) till 20200. Stochastic already below 20 and MACD entering in to negative territory after a long time and if November bounce didn't sustain and fail to bring MACD back above zero, possibility of downfall is high. This downfall can last till March'2019.


Nifty weekly -

Same is the story with Nifty as well, last time it falls 10-12%. This time if it fails to make a comeback(and stays above 10500-10800), it may goes down till 9100.


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