01/01/2018 Nifty

Range of 10570-600 is crucial and bulls need close above it for the uptrend continuation. Bearish below 10470 for a move towards 10410/10340

26/12/2017 Nifty

22/12/2017 Nifty

21/12/2017 Nifty

18/12/2017 Nifty counts

BIG WAVE I. 10034-10329=295 points. This divided in 5 sub waves-

                     i.            10034-10128

                   ii.            10128-10101

                  iii.            10101-10322

                 iv.            10322-10282

                   v.            10282-10329

BIG WAVE II. 10329-10142=187 points (roughly 61.8% retrace of wave 1). It was a zigzag-

       a.  10329-10211(subdivided in 5 sub waves)

             b.  10211-10296(corrective a/b/c)

             c.  10296-10142(again in 5 sub waves)

BIG WAVE III. 10142-10xxx. This BIG WAVE 3 further subdividing in five waves-

Wave 1. 10142-10373 =231 points. Subdivided in 5 waves as -

                     i.            10142-10201

                   ii.            10201-10172

                  iii.            10172-10361

                 iv.            10361-10332

                   v.            10332-10373

Wave 2. 10373- 10xxx

   a. 1^st possibility: - 10373- 10321(roughly 23.6%, done already??).

         b. 2^nd possibility: - 10373-10285(38.2%)

         c. 3^rd possibility: - 10373-10230(61.8%)

Wave 3. 103xx (or 102xx) + 374 = 10600/10700+ (minimum 161.8% of wave 1)

If wave 2 is already done at 10321(23.8%), wave 3 is going to be furious with gap-up as wave 2 retrace minimum of wave 1.

Counts for 08-12-2017

For fall from 10409 to 10034 -

23.6%=10123
38.2%=10177
61.8%=10266

For raise from 10034 to 10182 -

23.6%=10147
38.2%=10125
61.8%=10090

Today's candle middle point 10118, if open near it, look for buy.

look for buy near 10125 with SL 10094 and reverse the position. Look for sell around 10260 with SL 10190 and reverse position.

Two hurdles/resistances : 10240 and 10320. If both can be crossed then it can go above 10500+ 

Count for 21-11-2017

If NS break trend line (appx 10280) or 62EMA(10272) then possible 3rd wave might start.
IF NS moves up above today's height(10310), it may try to cross friday's high(10343).
10312 is also 61.8% retrace of fall from 10343 -10262. So staying above/below 10312 is important for next move.

Short below 10272, long above 10312.

Count for 20-11-2017

Multiple possibilities, if current upmove is bigger third wave starting from 10094 then -

1.10094-10344(248 points)
2.10344-10268=(76 points)(23.6%=10285, 38.2%=10259)
3.10268 -xxxxx(161.8%=10669)

If NS start to move up and cross yesterday's high(10344), then it may be 3rd wave; stoploss for long will be 10268.


Other side:-

If current move from 10094 is B wave with 'a' done near 10344 and a probable 'b' is done at 10268, then 'c' might target 10400+/-. Since this is B wave it cannot exceed more than 78% of wave A, wave C might start from there and will target near or below 10000.

More other side:-

B is done at 10344 and
C.1. 10344-10268(76)
C.2. 10268-102xx(23.6%=10286,38.2%=10297,61.8%=10315)

Go LONG - If 62EMA in 5 mins chart is crossed for upside, enter long with 10268 as stop loss OR 62EMA in 15 mins chart.
GO SHORT - If opens in positive and does not move convincingly above 62EMA on 5 mins chart(tentatively 10300 which also coincide with C.2 above).

11-Nov-2017 Nifty View

Considering this downfall is a Zigzags ABC from 10490(as wave A unfolded in 1-5 waves); A might have done at 10254.

Now if current wave is a B wave UP from 10254, then potential target (for fall of 236 points from 10490 to 10254) could be -

38.2%=10352(almost done already??) OR 50% =10372 OR 61.8%=10412.

If B is not yet done and since B in Zigzags subdivides in 3 subwaves; ‘a’, 'b' and 'c';
'a' might have been done at 10345.
'b' can target-
38.2%=10311 OR 50%=10300 OR 61.8%=10289(stop loss for small ‘b’??) and then 'c' will start for 10400 +/- level.

10444(appx) can be used as stop loss for wave C (as B wave doesn't cross more than 75% of wave A).

27-Oct-2017 Nifty View

Nifty didn't move as per my previous analysis.

Now some more height possible till 10450 +/-

First probability - If current wave is 5th, it could target 10468 ( 61.8% of 0-3 wave from 9688-10243).

Second Possibility -  If move from 10125 is in the form of  5 subwaves :-
5.1 = 10238
5.2 = 10182
5.3 = 10333
5.4 = 10241
5.5 = 10447(100% of 0-3 wave as 5.3 is a normal wave)


So as of now 10450 looks possibility on higher side and if come, will start looking to sell near 10400+.

26-Oct-2017 Nifty View

Looks like 1-5 is done from 9688 -10333.

0-1 = 9688-9854
1-2 = 9854-9775
3.1 = 9775-9946
3.2 = 9946-9882
3.3 = 9882-10067
3.4 = 10067-9956
3.5 = 9956-10243(in 5 subwaves)
3-4 = 10243-10125
4-5 = 10125-10333(again in 5 subwaves) -38.2%

Seems like correction started,  'A' wave could be in the form of 1-5 or a-b-c.

If it's in 5 wave -
0-1 = 10333-10241
1-2 = 10241-10313 (78.6% of wave 1)
2-3 =10313 - 10xx(10164 if it's 161.8% of wave 1 OR 10130 if 200%)
We have a gap on 25/10/17, probably this will be filled by wave 'A'

20-Oct-2017 Nifty View

Correction is started(or maybe its done) in Nifty for the rise from 9688 - 10252. This raise can be considered as wave 1(in next higher level).

23.6%(10121) retracement is already done so one possibility is to move up higher for all time high.  Another possibility, more fall is pending and nifty may goes till 38.2%(10039). If it breaks 10120, possibly it will fill the gap and below that 38.2% is the target. This fall can be considered as wave 2.

If Nifty bounce from current level(10125) and break 10238, it could be a start of wave 3.

But to me it looks like sell on rise (till 10238 is protected on closing basis) and then 3rd wave will start (maybe be from 38.2-61.8% , fall up to 9900 is another possibility )

Can enter short below 10175(considering bounce is 4th wave from current level of corrective wave  'c'). 10176-10238 no trading zone. If nifty moves up but fail to cross 10238 on closing basis, short can be initiated.

17-Oct-2017 View

Looks like a 5 done at 10243 and flat correction is going on with 'a' done at 10175; 'b' completed at 10240 and 'c' is in progress and likely to take support at 10160.

After this it may attempt for new height till diwali.

My first blog

This is my first blog. I have been trading in nifty since last couple of years; more precisely I login into my trading account few time every quarter and blowing up all my hard earned money.

Tried learning few things many times in past and tried hard to stick to trading plans/stop-losses,,,,  but not able to do so.

Repeating the same things again now. Is there is anything new this time??? I guess yes, trying to learn Elliot Waves, some patience and will post my understanding here on this my blogspot (journal kind of stuff for my personal review) .

Will try not to be an emotional fool or greedy this time and stick to the numbers only.

As per my understanding  wave counts are as-

1=9854 (started from 9688, height =166 points)
2=9775
3=10067 (9775+269(161.8% of 1st ))   0-3=421
4=9956
5=9956+260(61.8% of 0-3 wave height)=10216 ???

Since 5th already crossed 38.2% of 0-3 wave, next target is 61.8% which comes to 10216.
3rd wave is already an extended wave(by 22 points) as per my understanding, so 5th should target 10216 only or else extended 5 can go upto 10377(100% of 0-3 wave length).

Another view -

In 5 min chart, first wave started from 9956
0=9956
1=10037
2=10007
3=10168(200% of wave 1)
4=10156(a flat correction, less than 23.6%)
5=10225(61.8% of 0-3 wave)